Crowd-simulation Oracle

Setup & integration

1. Where predictions live

Redis stream: maf:arena:crowd_simulation:output
Redis URL: redis://localhost:6379/0 (set via REDIS_URL)
Wire format: one entry per XADD, single field data holding CrowdPredictionEnvelope.model_dump_json() (schema_version "1").

2. Publish a prediction (CLI)

cd /home/trbck/workspace/MAF
PYTHONPATH=src REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379/0 \
  python -m maf.arenas.crowd_simulation.demo \
    --source-adapter polymarket_bet --source-arg latest=true   # or:
PYTHONPATH=src REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379/0 \
  python -m maf.arenas.crowd_simulation.three_source_demo      # all 3 sources

3. Read predictions back (CLI)

PYTHONPATH=src REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379/0 \
  python -m maf.arenas.crowd_simulation.tail --count 5         # one-shot
PYTHONPATH=src REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379/0 \
  python -m maf.arenas.crowd_simulation.tail --follow          # live tail

4. Consume in your bot (5-line opt-in)

import asyncio, json
import redis.asyncio as aioredis

async def opt_in():
    r = aioredis.from_url("redis://localhost:6379/0")                                      # 1
    while resp := await r.xread({"maf:arena:crowd_simulation:output": "$"}, block=0):      # 2
        env = json.loads(resp[0][1][0][1][b"data"])                                        # 3
        kind, decision = env["decision_kind"], env["decision"]                             # 4
        print(kind, decision)  # ← act on `decision` here                                  # 5

5. Source-specific docs

fomo2_report  →  reads ../fomo2/output/analyze_*.md; pick latest, by filename, or since timestamp.
polymarket_bet  →  CLOB / Gamma APIs; pick by condition_id, slug, or top-volume latest.
oddsoddy_strategy  →  reads ../oddsoddy/strategies/<name>/{config.yaml, paper_run_*.db}; pick by name or latest.
Full reference: docs/crowd_simulation_oracle.md.

6. Decision shapes (per decision_kind)

polymarket_side     → {"side":"YES"|"NO"|"SKIP","edge_bps":int,"suggested_size_usd":float}
fomo2_signal        → {"signal":"BUY"|"SELL"|"HOLD","confidence":float[0,1],"horizon_hours":int}
oddsoddy_multiplier → {"multiplier":float[0,2],"gate":bool,"reason":str}